Oral care is an important part of self-care, and consumers are interested in products that will address their specific needs. In recent years, we’ve seen a trend toward natural and organic products and an increased interest in specific ingredients. We’ve put together a list of the natural ingredients that we predict will grow slowly in 2023, and you’ll quickly see that most of the ingredients aren’t actually ingredients but the claims that these ingredients make.
Here are our Predicted Natural Ingredient Losers for 2023
The graphic below breaks dives into the ten oral care natural ingredients we believe possess the lowest potential for growth in 2023. Natural ingredient opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice (a leading indicator of market share) and year-over-year growth rate.
To help brands better understand the needs of their consumers, we’ve leveraged our White Space AI tool to analyze 21 natural ingredients specific to oral care to forecast what will be trending in 2023.
Anti-Septic
First on our predicted loser’s list is Anti-Septic, which we forecast will have a negative 53.33 percent growth rate in 2023. This natural ingredient is commonly used in mouthwashes and other oral hygiene products.
While there are many reasons why an ingredient may be trending down, one possible explanation for Anti-Septic’s predicted decline is that consumers are increasingly interested in specific ingredients rather than the benefits of those ingredients.
To tap into this trend, brands could consider formulating their products to mimic Listerine’s antiseptic mouthwash line but with natural ingredients that consumers are specifically looking for.
Freshens Breath
Freshens Breath is table stakes in the oral care market. While not technically a natural ingredient itself, consumers will not be as interested in Freshens Breath labels as in previous years, so we predict that it will decline by 34.32 percent in 2023.
This predicted decline could be due to a shift in consumer preferences towards natural ingredients that offer more specific benefits. To stay ahead of this trend, brands can consider formulating their products with trending ingredients like Cinnamon that inherently help freshen breath. Alternatively, think outside the box and find different ways to achieve fresh breath. Burst’s Oral Probiotics are a new take on promoting fresh breath.
Antibacterial
Antibacterial oral care products like mouthwashes and toothpastes are also predicted to see a decline in 2023, with a negative 27.35 percent growth rate. While antibacterial interest isn’t going away anytime soon, we’re seeing a shift in how consumers are looking for these products.
So, while we predict that antibacterial oral care products like this Crest toothpaste will continue to decline, there is an opportunity for brands to tap into this trend by formulating their products with natural ingredients that consumers are specifically interested in, like Bentonite.
Kills Germs
The best oral care products kill germs – that’s the whole point, right? Instead of just wanting a product like this Colgate mouthwash that kills germs, consumers are now interested in products formulated with natural ingredients that are specifically known for their germ-killing properties.
So, while we predict that the Kill Germs trend will decline by 24.12 percent in 2023, there is an opportunity for brands to tap into this trend by formulating their products with natural ingredients.
Dry Mouth
Dry Mouth is a condition, not an ingredient – but it’s an important one to consider when formulating oral care products. We predict that Dry Mouth will decline by 14.88 percent in 2023 as consumers become more interested in ingredients that address specific needs, like those that help with bad breath and dry mouth.
Squeaky Clean
Squeaky Clean is also not technically an ingredient, but it’s a common claim on oral care products. We predict that Squeaky Clean will decline by 14.73 percent in 2023 for the same reasons as Freshens Breath – consumers are interested in products and ingredients with specific benefits, not just general claims.
Healthy Gums
Teeth aren’t the only focus when it comes to oral care – gums are just as important. We predict that Healthy Gums will decline by 12.96 percent in 2023 as consumers become more interested in ingredients like Glycerin that helps kill bacteria and protect the gums.
Products that help maintain healthy gums such as Colgate’s Gum Defense line, which is formulated with Glycerin, are a good way to stay ahead of the competition.
For Kids
Instead of specifically looking for oral care products For Kids, consumers will prefer natural ingredients that are kid-safe, like stevia. So, the team here at simporter isn’t surprised to predict that For Kids will decline by 9.09 percent in 2023.
Despite holding a considerable share of voice at 0.48 percent, we predict that For Kids will continue to decline as consumers seek out natural ingredients for their oral care products that their children can safely use with them.
For Sensitive Teeth
Tooth sensitivity is another condition that consumers are interested in regarding oral care. We predict that For Sensitive Teeth will decline by 5.20 percent in 2023 for the same reasons as many ingredients above. Consumers hope, in their search for specific natural ingredients, that their oral care products will help soothe sensitive teeth and gums. Brands able to mimic the success of Sensodyne but with on-trend ingredients will set themselves up for success.
Prevent Cavities
Preventing Cavities is the most important function of an oral care product, so it’s no surprise that it’s still a popular claim. We predict that Prevent Cavities will decline by 4.89 percent in 2023 as consumers become more interested in ingredients that offer specific benefits, like those that help with bad breath and dry mouth.
Products like Grove’s Whole Care Anticavity Mouthwash we predict will perform average, at best. So, if you’re going to dig into products that Prevent Cavities, try innovating with other ingredients, sensory attributes, or flavors to attract consumers.
Conclusion
When we look at natural products specifically, we find that consumers are the most passionate about specific ingredients. So, for brands wanting to capitalize on high-growth trends like Charcoal, focus on the consumer segment that cares the most.
Within natural ingredients, we’re seeing less emphasis on benefits (Freshens Breath, Healthy Gums, etc.) and a heavier focus on trending ingredients — those that consumers are explicitly searching for.
If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website for more insights on oral care ingredient trends. Predicting ingredient trends is just one way Simporter can help brands grow their business, so to learn more about how we can help you, please visit us at simporter.com.