The market for sun care products is everchanging, and 2023 will be no exception to the rule. There’s a vast range of Sun Care products — all of which are available in various forms and application methods. Some consumers prefer to use the traditional squeeze bottle sunscreen or face lotions, while others prefer lip-based SPF protection or even makeup that helps reduce the impact of harsh UV rays.
Since there are so many options, we wanted to dig deeper into which cross-category forms will take over the market with a big growth year in 2023. So, our team here at Simporter used our White Space AI tool to analyze 24 luxury sun care cross-categories to forecast what will be trending throughout the next 12 or so months.
Here are our Predicted Winners for 2023
The graphic below breaks down eight luxury sun care cross-categories we believe possess the greatest potential for growth in 2023 (aka our Predicted Winners). Sun Care cross-category opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice — a leading indicator of market share — and year-over-year growth rate. Or, in this case, negative growth rate.
Now, let’s discuss why these cross-categories will increase their share of voice next year in a challenging, competitive Sun Care market.
Sponges
Who knew that 2023 would be the year of the sponge?! Based on our AI predictions, Sponges (0.28 percent share of voice) are set to dominate the sun care cross-category field with an astounding 952.17 percent growth rate — almost 1,000 percent growth year-over-year.
Why would something so ubiquitous like Sponges suddenly take off like a rocket ship?
We believe that sponges are picking up in popularity because consumers prefer to have sun care products convenient for on-the-go use. This means that they want something compact and practical with minimal mess involved. By using Sponges, consumers can achieve the efficiency and sun protection they desire without getting their hands dirty or using brushes, etc.
Selena Gomez’s Rare Beauty is one step ahead of the competition already and is clearly paying attention to these types of trends: their pop-up offer on their landing page offers this Liquid Touch Multi-Tasking Sponge with any new email signup that turns into a purchase.
Neck Creams
Next up is Neck Creams, which hold a 0.50 percent share of voice and are expected to see an impressive 652.17 percent growth this year. Neck creams are more niche-style creams that should gain serious traction over the next twelve months if our predictions are correct.
Consumers who already use lotion, moisturizers, and so forth likely have an arsenal of area-specific creams they apply to their skin for various reasons. Neck creams like this one offer excellent SPF protection in an area that usually gets beaten down by the sun’s harsh rays throughout a long day outside. Plus, Neck Creams help with sagging skin or Tech and Turkey Neck. So, consumers who live an active and outdoor lifestyle may start to lean towards Neck Creams over generic sunscreens to maximize sun protection and skin health.
Bronzers
Third on our list is Bronzers, the final cross-category that we’ll review today with over 500 percent expected growth in share of voice next year. Consumers, especially younger generations like Gen Z, are always going for a glowing, radiant look. Bronzers offer that aesthetic while simultaneously helping consumers protect themselves from sunburns and other sun-related damage.
Currently sitting at a 0.20 percent share of voice, Bronzers will become much more popular and take over a more significant piece of the sun care pie with 552.17 percent expected growth in 2023.
Foundation
We won’t dive too deep into what foundation makeup products are, but at a high level, Foundations are a form of face makeup. Foundation is used on your face to create a solid base for the remainder of your makeup or cosmetic products. Because of how fundamental Foundations are for most consumers, it’s no surprise to see that Foundations hold the largest share of voice — by far — on this list at 5.18 percent. Our White Space tool projects that their market share will only continue to increase in 2023 by 130.50 percent.
Consumers will continue to need and use foundation as long as the cosmetics industry doesn’t innovate something new to act as a base for a makeup routine. So, if your brand isn’t already making Foundations like this one from Dior, it’s time to step up your game.
Mascaras
Mascaras like this SPF Beach Waterproof Mascara currently holds a 0.18 percent share of voice but should see some market share improvement throughout 2023. This year, we project a respectable 252.17 growth rate as more consumers learn about the benefits of wearing sun care-focused Mascaras.
Concealers
Concealers aren’t too different from Foundations, except they tend to be thicker in texture and specifically try to conceal blemishes on the skin. Whether a consumer is addressing age spots, dark circles, or other imperfections, Concealers (0.78 percent share of voice) can help do the trick.
Makeup experts suggest using a little bit of concealer on top of Foundations just to prevent smudging, so where there is Foundation, there will be Concealers as well. We expect a 163.28 percent growth rate this year, so keep your eye out for products like this Skin Caviar Concealer + Foundation Sunscreen SPF 15 from La Prairie to have a stellar year.
Powders
In our recent blog on Predicted Sun Care Need State Winners, we covered some of the most significant consumer priorities and needs in 2023 for Full Coverage and Super Soft products. Powders like this option from Supergoop!, with the second-largest share of voice on this list (3.45 percent), fit both of those needs beautifully, so they should perform well this year and expand on their market share.
Consumers want easy-to-use, comfortable, and low-irritation products. Powders are an excellent fit for the convenience and durability-focused consumer of 2023. So, our AI predicts a significant —albeit smaller than others on this list— growth rate of 64.67 percent next year.
Tinted Moisturizers
Tinted Moisturizers are exactly as they sound: moisturizers (in the form of creams, lotions, serums, etc.) that have a slight amount of color added. Consumers use Tinted Moisturizers as a quick way to apply a makeup look without the hassle of a whole cosmetics routine.
This cross-category has an expected 74.39 percent growth rate next year, which should add some cushion to an already sizeable 1.27 percent share of voice (third largest on this list). Brands like Ilia are doing a great job offering SPF-centric products like this Super Serum Skin Tint SPF 40 Foundation to their audience. If you’re a brand with a good share of the moisturizer market, 2023 is a great year to leap into the Tinted Moisturizer category to scale your business.
Be Confident in These Cross-Categories
The eight cross-categories we highlighted in today’s article all appear to have an explosive 12 month period ahead of them. Depending on your company’s specialties and product position strategies, 2023 can be a great time to reinvent how you package or brand your next sun care offerings.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
