The COVID-19 pandemic provided the perfect environment for an at-home self-care boom. Products essential to home spa care, such as Wipes, Oils, Sprays, and Serums, are expected to see negative growth. As people break free from their pandemic routines, they’ll need products that expedite their beauty routines and are great for an on-the-go lifestyle. Brands looking to compete in 2023 should take note of these declining forms to stay ahead of consumer trends.
Saying Goodbye to the At-Home Spa
Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 20 forms to predict which will have the most significant growth potential, specifically within the Luxury Cosmetics industry, in 2023. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions.
Let’s take a look at forms consumers will not be focused on in 2022.
Wipes
Gen Z will have the largest share of buying power of any generation in 2022, which will profoundly impact the luxury cosmetics products they use and the forms those products come in. After a year and a half indoors wearing less makeup, consumers have a refreshed perspective on the amount of makeup they need daily. This generation embraces natural, minimalist beauty routines, which we predict will impact the Wipes form by 60.92 percent in 2022.
Wipes, typically used to cleanse the face or wipe makeup off, won’t be as popular as they have been in past years. It’s not surprising to see wipes take the number one spot on our predicted losers list because younger consumers wearing less makeup won’t have as much of a need for wipes like these from Koh Gen Do.
Oils
Oils rank second on our predicted loser’s list. This industry giant holds an impressive 7.25 percent share of voice, but that won’t be enough to prevent its 38.94 percent negative 2022 growth potential. Oils like this one from Giorgio Armani don’t contain any water and are made primarily of — you guessed it — oils.
While this form has experienced a lot of growth in recent years, it’s not a great option for all skin types. Even though Oils can help balance the skin’s natural oil production, those with oily or acne-prone skin tend to avoid oil-based products. If you already have oily skin, why would you want to add more oil to it? So, for a generation searching for one-size-fits-all products, Oils will have trouble competing with other more universal forms like Pads and Pills.
Sprays
Sprays and mists are usually used before and after daily beauty routines. They can help moisturize the skin, prep it for makeup, and even lock in makeup after it’s applied. Like other forms on this list, Sprays are helpful but not essential to daily routines. So, it’s no surprise to see Sprays rank 3rd on our list with a projected 37.39 percent growth rate for 2022.
Consumer interest is shifting towards minimalist makeup looks, so brands should stay aware of the peripheral products like Sprays that will no longer live at the center of consumer conversations.
Serums
Serums sit right in the middle of our predicted loser’s list for 2022. Even though Serums hold a 4.58 percent share of voice, our team hypothesizes this form will decline 40.98 percent next year. Products like this Clarins Serum contain highly concentrated ingredients, making them great for an efficient beauty routine.
While this might seem like a perfect fit for active lifestyles, it will fail to check consumer “must-have” boxes. While Serums do help moisturize the skin, most don’t need Serums and Moisturizers. Especially for those with dry skin, Serums aren’t enough alone to properly moisturize the skin. For consumers obsessed with doing more with less, they’ll toss this non-essential product in favor of Creams that moisturize and address other skincare needs.
Scrubs
Scrubs skyrocketed during the pandemic because people had more time to focus on their daily beauty routines. Scrubs like this one from Barbara Sturm exfoliate and rejuvenate the skin, helping users relax while they use it. While Scrubs were a pandemic favorite, consumers won’t be as interested in this form as they reconstruct their beauty routines around their new, active lifestyles.
Since they can’t be used on the go, Scrubs will have a difficult time competing against Pads, Pills, and Sticks, which are much easier to throw in your bag before you head out for the day. Scrubs aren’t one of those products people want to carry on them. They require at-home, which will be a barrier to consumer interest in 2023.
Gels
Gels tend to be lighter and less moisturizing than their cream or lotion counterparts, making them an excellent option for consumers who experience frequent breakouts. However, consumers are stripping back their beauty routines and consolidating the products they use. The idea is to get more done with fewer products. On top of that, consumers want to use products that last throughout the day.
So, instead of picking up their favorite Gel (like this La Mer Moisturizing Gel Cream), buyers will favor creams because they pack a little more punch with every use. Our team predicts this will impact Gels by 17.01 percent in 2022, even though it holds a decent 4.13 share of voice.
For more on how we predict Creams and other popular forms to perform in 2022, check out our blog on Rising Forms for 2022 here.
Masks
Masks are a perfect option for long, relaxing at-home beauty routines. But, as people spend less time at home, they won’t have time for masks in the same way they did during the COVID-19 pandemic. So, our White Space AI tool predicts masks will see a 20.41 percent negative growth rate despite its modest 2.66 percent share of voice.
Products like this Eve Lom Mask, which can be washed off after 30 minutes, will have a hard time competing in 2022 because it simply takes too much time to use. People had a lot of time on their hands during the pandemic, but they will spend much more time on the go and purchase products that expedite their daily routines, not extend them.
Our Thoughts on Forms
Brands looking to compete in 2023 should take note of the lifestyle shifts of their youngest consumers. Gen Z is changing the beauty game and will gravitate towards multi-purpose and high-impact forms and products. Therefore, expect to see forms like Wipes, Oils, Sprays, and Serums decline in popularity as consumer needs and buying patterns change.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
