Consumer demand is a critical component for any trend analysis, so let’s dig into consumer need states. You might be asking yourself, what exactly is a need state? Need states are the factors that motivate a consumer to buy a cosmetics product, like experiencing dry skin or suffering from acne.
Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 107 need states to predict 2023 luxury cosmetics needs. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions. Data insights like these have proven useful to any business looking to get ahead of the curve.
Here’s our breakdown of need states that will come out on top
The graphic below breaks down the top 8 consumer need states we believe possess the greatest potential for growth in 2023. Need state opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice (how much market share it has) as well as year-over-year growth rate.
Blemishes
With the majority of 2022’s buying power lying in the hands of Gen Z, it’s no surprise that Blemishes takes the top spot on our predicted winner’s list. With an impressive 1.04 percent share of voice, our team predicts this evergreen need will see 122.17 percent growth in 2023.
Younger consumers will have more blemishes (i.e. acne, pimples) and therefore, will be looking for skincare products that help cleanse the skin and reduce the appearance of breakouts and other skin impurities.
Full Coverage
Full Coverage takes the second spot on our list, with a 1.36 percent share of voice and 103.02 percent predicted growth rate. So, what exactly does “Full Coverage” mean? Full Coverage products, often applied in layers, conceal skin imperfections and help the skin look smooth.
With more blemishes, consumers will search for products to cover these skin impurities. They’ll say goodbye to traditional foundations and look for Full Coverage products that address multiple skincare needs, such a dryness, redness, dark spots, breakouts, fine lines, and more. Products like this one from It Cosmetics, not only cover skin imperfections but also protect the skin with SPF 50+, something everyone should be thinking about.
Intensive Moisture
With Gen Z’s fundamentally different skincare needs, we predict Intensive Moisture will see 100.32 percent share of growth in 2023. While Intensive Moisture holds a decent market share at 0.63 percent, this need state will only continue to grow as younger generations focus on addressing skincare issues in their day-to-day beauty routines.
Intensive Moisture products like this one from Perricone MD are typically made up of a blend of moisturizers that provide ultra-moisturizing benefits and can often rehydrate your skin while you sleep. One-note moisturizing products simply won’t cut it. Consumers will prefer products that take moisturizing to the next level, making a bigger impact with fewer reapplications. Put simply, consumers want their products to work harder while they work less to get that perfect, radiant skin.
Glow/Radiate
Gen Z is hyper-focused on natural radiance and glowy skin, which will impact the Glow/Radiate need state by 67.76 percent. With the largest share of voice on our list (1.47 percent), who doesn’t want their skin to Glow/Radiate?
Gen Z will be obsessed with finding products like Dior’s Capture Youth Serum that lock in moisture to achieve radiant, healthy, and glowing skin. Products in this category emphasize that they can improve dullness/uneven textures, dark spots, and more. So, it seems like 2023 will definitely be a year for the #GlowUp, literally.
Remove Bacteria
In line with Blemishes and Full Coverage, consumers will need products that help to remove all of that bacteria, dirt, and grime that builds up throughout the day and causes unwanted blemishes and imperfections. The team here at Simporter predicts Bacteria Removal will see an impressive 352.17 percent growth in 2023.
Considering there is a significantly heightened sensitivity to germs and sanitary practices in the wake of COVID-19, consumers will look to address this fundamental need state that should aid them in addressing so many other needs on this list.
Dark Spots
Dark spots are a pretty common skincare condition that happens when the skin produces too much melanin. Usually harmless, Dark Spots can be caused by sun exposure, aging, scarring, etc. We predict this need state to increase by 90.41 percent in 2022 despite having an average share of voice at 0.74 percent.
Products that reduce the appearance of Dark Spots, like this Ultimate Revival Essence from SK-II will help consumers get one step closer to their natural, barely-there makeup looks. We predicted in our blog on winning ingredients here, that products containing Niacinamide, a common ingredient that fights Dark Spots, will be trending in 2022. So, it’s no surprise to see Dark Spots ranking on this predicted winner’s list.
Highly Pigmented
In the penultimate spot on our list, we predict the Highly Pigmented need state to grow 52.17 percent in 2022. Highly pigmented cosmetics products like eyeshadow will dominate consumer conversations as they contain a higher concentration of color pigments, with fewer binders and fillers than traditional products.
As we’ve discussed, consumers will be taking a harder look at what’s in their cosmetics products. Why pay more for less? Tomorrow’s consumers want more bang for their buck and will prioritize Highly Pigmented products over those that stuff fillers and other non-value, low-impact ingredients into their products.
Convenient
Convenience will be king. Our team predicts products that address consumer convenience will grow 42.65 percent next year. As people adjust to post-pandemic routines and try to get more done with less time, they’ll need products that allow them to do more, with less. They’ll toss non-essential products in favor of those that directly address their most pressing skincare and makeup needs.
The bottom line
2023 provides a healthy runway for products that address the evergreen skincare needs of younger consumers. Brands should keep these trending consumer needs in mind when developing new products, ingredients, forms, and so on. Aim to release products that address the needs consumers are already talking about and searching for.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
