2022 Luxury Fragrances: Predicted Winners

2022 Luxury Fragrances: Predicted Winners

Having spent much of the last year and a half indoors, consumers stripped back their beauty routines and took breaks from scented products. People want to make a great first impression as they walk back into the office, event, or get-together. So, consumers will be looking for subtle ways to reincorporate fragrances into their new lifestyles. The overarching theme we see across the Luxury Cosmetics industry heading into 2022 is the push for natural ingredients over artificial ones. We've covered the topic in detail in our White Paper here, and we'll cover more in the article below, specifically for the Fragrance category.

Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 28 Fragrances to predict which will have the most significant growth potential, specifically within the Luxury Cosmetics industry, in 2022. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions.

Rain Water

Rain Water takes the top spot on our predicted winner’s list with impressive triple-digit growth potential and a decent share of voice over 1 percent. The crisp and refreshing Rain Water scent that lingers in the air during and after rain is a fan favorite, with an astounding 502.17 percent expected growth rate in 2022. 

fragrances - rain water

Consumer interest is shifting towards natural fragrances, which opens a perfect opportunity for Rain Water to skyrocket its growth in 2022. They will want scents that make them feel refreshed, not cover their noses and walk the other way. 

Often composed of lily, grapefruit, vanilla, and sandalwood, Rain Water fragrances like this ALLSAINTS Eau de Parfum are sweet and fresh but intentionally not overbearing. The water-inspired scent feels natural (even though it isn't made from rain), and it's soon to be at the center of consumer conversations. Consumers are trimming back their beauty routines, and that will extend to fragrances. In tomorrow's market, less will be more. 


fragrances - vanilla

Fan-favorite Vanilla should see impressive triple-digit growth at 177.19 percent in 2022. It's one of those scents that have been around forever. Products like this SKYLAR Vanilla Sky Eau de Parfum give off a warm and spicy scent that’s incredibly versatile. It has the power to make its wearers feel beautiful, feminine, and sexy. Plus, Vanilla is a known aphrodisiac, so it’s no surprise consumers will still gravitate towards this scent.

So, as consumers feel more pressure to look — and smell — their best in public, they’ll be sure to grab the latest Vanilla-scented products. Brands should look to incorporate Vanilla in new and innovative ways to capture the hearts of consumers.  

Lightly Scented

fragrances - lightly scented

We've all walked past someone wearing too much perfume or smelled a fragrance that instantly triggers a headache. Some fragrances are so strong they're offputting. So, it's no surprise to see Lightly Scented on our predicted winner's list for 2022. The team here at Simporter predicts this fragrance will grow 130.11 percent next year. 

Lightly scented products are not intrusive, refreshing, and surprisingly dynamic. Consumers will want light scents that perform throughout the day but won't offend those around them. After 18 months indoors with no reason to flaunt excessive fragrances, consumers are ready to incorporate scents into their daily routines but will be prepared to get back to basics. 


fragrances - ocean

After a stressful pandemic experience, consumers are yearning for new and different ways to relax and feel grounded. Ocean fragrances like this Giorgio Armani Ocean-scented Eau de Parfum provide a sense of peace and comfort, claiming the mind and body. Our team predicts a 142.27 percent growth potential for this nature-inspired fragrance. 

When people go to the beach, they expect to relax and unwind. So, it’s no surprise consumers will want to find ways to capture that feeling and reexperience it daily.  

Earthy Musk

fragrances - earthy musk

Newcomer Earthy Musk takes the fifth spot on our winner’s list. Despite holding only a 0.10 percent share of voice, we anticipate Earthy Musk will see 152.10 percent growth potential for 2022. While musk has been used in fragrances for some time, we predict this woodsy scent will see a surge in popularity next year. It taps into our more instinctual senses and can even be layered with other scents to create unique undertones. 

Products with Earthy Musk notes, such as Trish Mcevoy’s Musk Scented Perfume, will help ground consumers, who will be looking for different ways to feel centered and grounded. The scent gives wearers the feeling of taking a long walk in the woods, seeing the trees, and smelling the dirt and foliage around them. 

Earthy Musk is also the most sophisticated scent on the list. So, it’s not surprising to see a high growth opportunity for the fragrance. As people emerge from their homes and restart in-person interactions, they’ll be looking for ways to stand out and impress those around them. 


fragrances - unscented

While natural, clean, and lightly scented fragrances will see dramatic growth in 2022, not all options need to be scented. For consumers looking to strip back their beauty routines, unscented products are an excellent fit for those who want or have allergies or sensitivities. Holding the largest share of voice on the list at 2.62 percent, we predict Unscented Fragrances will grow 25.86 percent in the coming year. 

Scented products have inundated consumers, so tossing scented products will be a fresh of breath air (literally) for many consumers. 


fragrances - citrus

Citrus fragrances have performed well in past years, and 2022 will be no different. Predicted to grow modestly at 14.67 percent, the fragrance's 2.60 percent share of voice will help it sustain its popularity. 

This mainstream fragrance is refreshing and helps its wearers feel effortlessly elegant. Often derived from vitamin-C-packed fruits like orange and lemon, Citrus Fragrances like this one from The 7 Virtues are zesty, vibrant, and can even help relieve stress. Consumers will purchase Citrus-scented products because they aren’t potent and help buyers feel fresh, light, and energetic. As consumers spend more of their time on the go, they’ll be looking for fragrances that help them stay alert throughout the day.

2022’s Fragrance Fever

It's clear that potent is out and natural is in. Consumers will be looking for subtle fragrances that provide a mood boost — looking for ways to experience the calming release of being in nature within the constraints of everyday life. Not everyone can go to the beach, take a walk, or sit on a porch in the rain, so fragrances like Rain Water, Ocean, and Earthy Musk will help people feel the essence of these outdoor experiences. 
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.

Addicted to Data Science?

We will send you a digest once or twice per month with the latest buzz around the industry.

Thank you for your request!

Addicted to Data Science?

We will send you a digest once or twice per month with the latest buzz around the industry.