As discussed in our blog post about 2022 Luxury Cosmetic Trends: Need State Winners, consumer demand is critical for any trend analysis. Need states are beauty needs consumers claim to have, such as common ones like oily skin or acne. We expect that consumers will be looking for luxury cosmetics products to address these specific needs. Foundations are a must-have in most makeup cabinets, so brands can capitalize on a market that constantly consumes their product on an everyday basis.
Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 39 Need States to predict 2022 luxury foundation needs. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions. Data insights like these have proven helpful to any business looking to get ahead of the curve.
Are Your Products What Your Customers Need?
The graphic below breaks down the 39 need states we believe possess the highest and lowest potential for growth in 2022. Foundation Need State opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice (a leading indicator of market share) and year-over-year growth rate.
For Oily Skin
With younger consumers assuming the majority of 2022’s buying power, it’s no surprise to see Oily Skin top our predicted winner’s list. Oily Skin plagues younger generations causing acne, blemishes, and other skin conditions. Products like this Tom Ford Traceless Soft Matte Foundation are a convenient solution to chronic Oily Skin and should ultimately see a massive 252.17 percent growth potential next year. Its current 3.62 percent share of voice sits atop the list, so people are talking about it and are interested in buying more.
Make Skin Glow
It’s time to #GlowUp in 2022 for the foundation that helps consumers achieve that natural, glowy look that helps them stand out from the crowd. Our team predicts foundations that add a little glow to the skin will grow 213.71 percent in the new year. Influencers in the cosmetic world such as Jeffree Star regularly promote products that produce a glowing, radiant aesthetic for their customers.
Fight Dull Skin
If you’re chronically dehydrated or cut corners on your daily skincare routine, you might suffer from Dull Skin. No need to fear — foundations will do the trick and help your skin regain its healthy, vibrant glow. Foundations that Fight Dull Skin like this one from Estée Lauder are likely to trend next year. Our team predicts an impressive 552.17 percent growth potential for this relatively small Need State, which holds a minuscule 0.25 percent share of voice.
Hide Blemishes
Foundations are likely to grow 108.42 percent as consumers look for quick solutions to cover breakouts. Blemishes haven’t been too much of a concern for the general public over the last 18 months due to mask mandates and lockdowns, but that’s all expected to change in the next year. With a 3.45% share of voice, consumers are much more focused on hiding their blemishes heading into 2022, so brands can capitalize on the shift in momentum and produce more products to suit customer preferences. Foundations like Hourglass’ Immaculate Liquid Powder Foundation should excel in 2022.
Wrinkle Coverage
Sheer coverage foundation is perfect for those concerned about fine line and Wrinkle Coverage. While we predict Matte products will perform well in 2022 (For more on how Matte products will perform next year, read our blog here), they don’t always work for older consumers because the thicker composition can settle into fine lines and wrinkles. While Gen Z will hold a lot of power in the new year, brands can’t turn their backs on older shoppers with unique needs.
Wrinkle Coverage holds the largest share of voice on our predicted winner’s list at 3.55 percent, so consumers are talking about it. Nobody likes wrinkles or feeling like they look older than they actually are, so we anticipate this Need State will increase 95.03 percent in 2022.
Reduce Redness
Red in the face, but not because you’re mad? Foundations are an easy, quick fix for those looking to neutralize red skin tones. Now that we’re headed into the latter half of 2021 and winter of 2022, redness caused by dryness, skin irritation, cold weather, and other elemental factors will be on the rise. Currently, Reduce Redness holds a share of voice of 3.50 percent and is expected to see a 98.23 percent growth rate next year.
Sun Protection
Sun Protection is something everyone should be mindful of, and foundations that pack an additional punch with SPF protection are set up for a successful 2022. Even though the start of the year is always slow for Sun Protection products, they pick up in popularity significantly as Spring and Summer emerge. We predict that Sun Protection foundations like this one from bareMinerals, which hold the largest share of voice at 4.83 percent, will grow 85.50 percent in 2022.
Travel Friendly
After almost 18 months indoors, consumers are eager to resume pre-pandemic travel and will be looking for foundations that complement on-the-go lifestyles. The team here at Simporter predicts Travel-Friendly foundations will experience a 185.50 percent growth rate in 2022. Less is more for on-the-go cosmetics solutions, so brands emphasizing clever, practical packaging and delivery methods should see an uptick in demand.
Even Skin Tone
Even Skin Tone rounds out our predicted winner’s list, and for good reason. Foundation is specifically designed to even out skin tones and reduce the appearance of acne and other skin imperfections. It acts as a base to your entire look, so it’s no surprise this Need State will grow 152.17 percent in 2022 despite its smaller 0.29 percent share of voice. Even Skin is a user win.
Dermatologist Recommended and Professional
Dermatologist Recommended and Professional foundations like this one from Avène sit at the top of our predicted loser’s list, expected to decline 122.83 and 81.16 percent respectively. While this might come as a surprise, the decline of these two Need States might result from a lower overall consumer health focus. Plus, many declined regular dermatologist appointments during the pandemic, and it will probably be a while before appointments resume as usual.
Hypoallergenic and For Rosacea
For consumers with sensitive skin, Hypoallergenic foundations and those that reduce Rosacea flareups won’t be as popular as they have been in prior years. While these two Need States have fewer potentially irritating ingredients, the team here at Simporter predicts they will decline 97.83 and 53.09 each. We dive deeper into hypoallergenic Need States in our blog post here.
Shed-free, Sweatproof, Absorb Quickly, Sensitive Skin, and Smooth
The final 5 spots on our predicted loser’s list have something in common: they’re all losing favor significantly with consumers because they provide only one type of benefit at once. People are exhausted from managing so many unnecessarily complex, cumbersome makeup products just to keep up with their routines. So, it’s not unexpected that products specifically geared towards one particular benefit are going to suffer from poor performance next year.
Shed-free (3.54 percent share of voice), Sweatproof (1.45 percent share of voice), Absorb Quickly (0.06 percent share of voice), Sensitive Skin (6.75 percent share of voice), and Smooth (32.47 percent share of voice) are all one-note Need States that don’t solve multiple problems at once. As a result, our analysis suggests three of these five biggest losers are expected to see at least 25 percent negative growth this year. Sensitive Skin and Smooth are going to experience less negative growth percentage-wise, with -2.11 percent and -0.93 percent, respectively, but due to their significant existing market share, their business is still going to be negatively impacted in 2022.
Our Thoughts on Need States
As brands take a look towards 2022, they should be focusing on producing foundations that address numerous consumer Need States all-in-one. Multipurpose products that help combat the impact of Oily Skin or Dull Skin should rise to the top while one-note options that are labeled as Dermatologist Recommended or Hypoallergenic are going to struggle to fly off the shelves. Get ahead of the curve and pay closer attention to the Need States your customer base is asking for.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
