Luxury Cosmetics and Lipsticks have dipped in popularity over the last two years while people stayed indoors with their families, but now it’s time to get back to normal. Instead of rocking bright, vibrant makeup styles, consumers have been erring towards more muted, natural aesthetics in their Cosmetics routines, but we predict that will change next year. After nearly 18 months of lockdowns, mask mandates are being lifted, and we’re getting back to our everyday routines. We think it’s safe to say…lips are back.
2022 Predicted Need State Winners and Losers
Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 107 need states across in the lipstick category to predict 2022’s trends. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions so that you can make the most informed product development decisions possible.
Making a note of both predicted winning and losing need states in the Lipstick category will give your brand the edge over your competition in 2022. It will be critical to actively listen to your customer base’s makeup and cosmetic needs if you want to remain relevant in a crowded industry. Take a look at our 2022 luxury lipsticks need states: predicted winners and predicted losers insights below.
What are customers demanding from luxury Lipstick products?
Intensive Moisture and Deeply Moisturizing
Who doesn’t love the feeling of a rich, moisturizing lipstick? As we head into the colder seasons, preventing cracking, dryness, itching, redness, or blemishes becomes increasingly tricky. So, we predict that Lipsticks featuring Intensive Moisture and Deeply Moisturizing properties will be at the forefront of consumer needs leading into Winter. To hear more of our thoughts on Intensive Moisture, check out our blog here.
Intensive Moisture (1.93 percent share of voice) is atop our list, with an expected 202.17 percent growth rate. Right behind Intensive Moisture Lipsticks are Deeply Moisturizing Lipsticks, holding a larger share of voice at 9.44 percent and a respectable expected 123.60 percent 2022 growth rate. Consumers are looking for convenience in their cosmetics routines, so products like Kylie’s Lips Trio that serve both need states in a single bundle are the perfect option.
All Day, Daily Use, and Long Lasting
Now that consumers are returning to their pre-pandemic routines, we anticipate that they’ll require Lipsticks that are convenient for Daily Use, are Long Lasting, and give them their desired look All Day long.
All Day is third on our list, with an 11.02 percent share of voice and a predicted 85.80 percent growth rate for 2022. Selena Gomez’s Rare Beauty has a line of lipsticks designed to accomplish an All Day matte look. Consumers using All Day Lipsticks don’t have to think about their product wearing off and aren’t concerned with reapplying throughout the day.
Daily Use holds a 3.10 percent share of voice and a 52.17 percent expected growth rate. Products made with natural ingredients that are reasonably priced and high quality are those that customers will feel comfortable using daily. Products used for Daily Use will benefit your brand because consumers will use their products faster and need to reorder more frequently.
Long Lasting comes in fifth on our list with the largest share of voice at 12.05 percent. We expect that for similar reasons to All Day and Daily use Lipsticks, Long Lasting will grow by 16.88 percent in 2022.
Damage Repairing
Last on our list for Need State Winners is Damage Repairing, which holds a 2.00 percent share of voice and an expected growth rate of 16.84 percent next year. It makes sense that customers would want products that help repair any short or long-term damage to their Lips, especially as we approach colder and dryer months.
Now onto our predicted losers.
Rich Moisturization
First on our list of predicted need states losers are lipsticks with Rich Moisturization, with a 7.92 percent share of voice. While this need state is very similar to Intensive Moisturization (number 1 on our Predicted Winners list above), it’s actually too niche to perform well in the 2022 cosmetics market. We expect Rich Moisturization to see a 74.50 percent decline in growth next year. “Intensive” and “Deep” are the types of attributes consumers are looking for when it comes to moisturizer lipsticks, not “rich” because they cover a more extensive, broader audience.
Won’t Shed
Products labeled as “Won’t Shed” hold a 4.27 percent share of voice and are expected to see negative growth of 62.11 percent in 2022. Even though products in this category are meant to be durable (which consumers love), customers are more interested in products like this one that categorizes themselves as All Day, Daily Use, and Long Lasting. From a marketing standpoint, “Won’t Shed” can sound off-putting and can be better described under one of the other options.
Sun Protection
Consumers care about protecting their skin and lips from sun damage. However, as we’ve discussed in our White Paper and other blogs, consumers are primarily interested in wearing lipsticks that serve multiple purposes at once. So, while Sun Protection is still top-of-mind, consumers will opt for all-in-one solutions instead of Lipsticks that specifically protect their lips from harmful UV rays.
Youthful Appearance, Replenishing, and Anti-Aging
Gen Z is going to have a significant share of the Luxury Cosmetics market in 2022. So, we believe that Lipsticks touting a Youthful Appearance (1.03 percent share of voice), Replenishing (25.00 percent share of voice), or Anti-Aging (6.02 percent share of voice) effect will not perform well next year. As the buyer pool continues to get younger, the market’s needs will shift towards broader spectrum products that give younger buyers more bang for their buck across the board.
Youthful Appearance products are expected to see a negative growth rate of 74.50 percent, and the most surprising to land on this list are Replenishing products like this one from Nu Skin. They own a quarter of the share of voice but are still predicted to perform poorly with a negative growth rate of 12.83 percent. Anti-Aging products fall to the bottom of our list and should experience 17.83 percent negative growth in 2022.
Stay Ahead of The Game
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
