The team here at Simporter used our White Space AI tool to analyze 30 colors to forecast which luxury cosmetics colors will be trending in 2022. While bold colors like Berry and Purple were all the rage when masks came off, they won’t be able to maintain their performance in the new year.
Brands should also take note of the fundamental shifts Gen Z is causing within the cosmetics industry. It’s no longer just about color itself but how that color compliments natural skin tones. To stay on top of consumer trends, brands need to look a little deeper into their color lineup and how that fits in with their target audiences.
Our Color Commentary
The graphic below breaks down the seven colors we believe possess the lowest potential for growth in 2022. Color opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice (a leading indicator of market share) and year-over-year growth rate.
Grey
Grey has the lowest potential for growth in 2022, predicted to see the most significant decline at 93.28 percent. The color’s small 0.40 percent share of voice will serve as a barrier to its success next year. While Grey is a quintessential color to get that perfect smoky eye, younger consumers are wearing less makeup. As a result, they won’t seek out products like this LANCÔME “Smokey Chic” Eye Shadow Palette as much as their older counterparts.
Berry
Berry is one of those colors that ebbs and flows and somehow always seems to make a comeback in the fall as the days get shorter. It’s a unique color — not quite red and not quite purple — making it a pretty versatile hue that works on many skin tones. However, its versatility and 0.66 percent share of voice won’t be enough to help this color perform well in 2022. Our team predicts berry-colored luxury cosmetics products like this one from Fenty Beauty will experience a 78.26 percent negative growth rate in the new year.
Consumers will gravitate towards more neutral nudes and subtler finishes that enhance their natural beauty, not cover it up.
Purple
Purple ranks third on our predicted losers list, with a 51.67 negative growth potential. This versatile color makes a statement, and it rose to popularity in the mid-to-late 2010s (it was even named the 2018 Pantone color of the year). But, if it’s not applied correctly or used with the right skin tone, it might make you look like you have a bruise. Nobody wants to look like a bruise.
So, instead of purple shades, consumers will be looking for colors that don’t take as much thought and effort to apply. They’ll seek out colors that complement their skin tone and don’t require much layering or color correcting. Consumers have too much going on to worry about the right way to apply color — they just want to apply it and walk out the door.
Shine
While everyone loves to shine, consumers have reinterpreted what Shine means to them. While Shine holds a 2.08 percent share of voice, our team expects a 17.83 percent negative growth potential. Consumers will pick up Sheer, Glitter, Stain, and Metallic products that “shine” in their own, subtler way.
Bobbi Brown’s Sheer Finish Loose Powder is likely to beat out products like this Shiny Lighting Powder from Hourglass. At the end of the day, consumers will want to glow — not Shine — in the new year.
Pink
While Pink certainly isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, this color won’t be as popular in 2022. Despite its significant 3.58 percent share of voice, the team here at Simporter predicts this rosy color will experience a 14.14 percent negative growth rate.
The color (like in this Benefit Cosmetics Highlighter) represents all things feminine and girly — Millennials have embraced this color, symbolizing a shift away from traditional gender boundaries. As Gen Z takes the majority of the buying power in 2022, they’ll leave Millenial Pink behind in favor of more neutral and inclusive colors.
Dewy
While Dewy isn’t a color in and of itself, it’s a finish that uses natural oils to reflect light and create a radiant (“dewy”) look. Celebrities like Chrissy Tiegen and Jennifer Lopez have been known to rock a dewy look, but that won’t be enough to stop this finish from declining 4.19 percent in the new year.
Dewy looks are more forgiving on older consumers with fine lines and wrinkles. Gen Z doesn’t need to worry about this yet, so they will favor Matte finishes over Dewy looks in 2022. Read our blog here for more on how we predict Matte colors to perform in the new year.
Black
We’re not surprised to see Black take the final spot on our predicted loser’s list for 2022. This intense color holds a significant 4.67 percent share of voice. Still, it’s difficult to use outside of mascara, eyeliners, and eye shadows (and Halloween), so our team predicts a modest 3.15 percent negative growth potential.
While traditional Black mascara like this one from Bobbi Brown will continue to be a makeup drawer staple, the color will have a hard time completing with subtler, natural colors.
So, what do we recommend?
Focus on developing products with colors and finishes that speak to a broad audience of skin tones and genders. Consumers will buy products that are easy to apply, versatile, and work with any skin tone. Like we mentioned at the start of this blog, it’s no longer just about color — it’s about how those colors complement all skin tones. Niche colors that have to be swapped out in between events won’t make the cut, and instead, consumers will favor products that can carry them from morning to night.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.
